A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
